May 29, 2013. While the Senate's comprehensive immigration bill has moved out of committee and begins the floor debate process, the House of Representatives is still hammering out details of their bill. Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on Tuesday stated that passing an immigration reform bill would be "pretty easy". But he was likely referring to passage in the Senate with a 55 member Democrat majority. And as most Americans (hopefully) are aware, it takes three to tango in American politics: the House, the Senate, and the President. Just because the Senate may pass their own version of immigration reform by no means assures passage in the House, with Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) warning last Thursday that the Senate bill would not pass in the House. He went on to state that the House would have their own version of immigration reform designed to appeal to conservatives.
The House immigration bill would likely eliminate any proposed "path to citizenship" for the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, and that alone would force backers of immigration reform, notably Democrats, against the House bill.
So essentially, it all boils down to this: if the Senate bill passes (with almost a guaranteed provision for a pathway to citizenship), then it's up to Speaker Boehner to convince enough Republicans to vote in favor of it, which, according to current reports, is unlikely to happen. On the flip side, if the House bill is passed and does not, in all likelihood, include a viable pathway to citizenship, then once it reaches the Senate, the bill would essentially be "dead on arrival", with most of the 55 Democrats demanding a path to citizenship be included in any comprehensive immigration reform bill.
People often ask me if comprehensive immigration reform will pass. In my opinion, now, I just don't know. It looked promising a few months back with the "Bipartisan Gang of 8" hammering out their differences, but now it looks like comprehensive immigration reform has a major hurdle to overcome with House Republicans.
If you have questions about this, or any other immigration matter, please visit www.kpimmigrationlaw.com or call 949-440-3240.
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